Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

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• Argue mass AI-driven layoffs of software engineers aren’t happening and won’t, treating this as demonstrable evidence rather than speculation since coding is AI’s most advanced domain.
• Cite “AI washing”: 59% of hiring managers admit exaggerating AI’s role in layoffs for optics, and New York’s WARN Act AI-disclosure checkbox was checked by essentially no filers in its first year (~0.2% of job losses).
• Introduce the “decide-execute-deliver sandwich”: AI compresses the execution (coding) layer, but decision and delivery/verification remain human bottlenecks — a Fed study found AI increased code output 8x but releases only 30%.
• Practical takeaway: expect the engineer role to shift toward supervising AI agents (“crane operators”) rather than disappearing — cheaper software creation likely increases overall demand (Jevons’ paradox) even as individual impact varies by seniority and firm.