Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028

Podcast · ~77 min · Listen · (gathered 2026-08-29)

• Anthropic and OpenAI are projected to control most of the world’s usable FLOPs by 2028, driven by their superior ability to monetize compute and thus outbid competitors.
• This centralization is fueled by economies of scale in training, compute scarcity, and the impending shift from inference to training as Recursive Self-Improvement (RSI) approaches.
• The discussion raises concerns about a potential sovereign debt crisis by the end of the decade, as over $10 trillion in AI capex could lead to hyperscaler debt, higher interest rates, and the bankruptcy of non-AI exposed countries.
• A key unresolved question is what, if anything, can counter the powerful forces pushing the AI industry towards extreme centralization, potentially concentrating future economic power and workforce control in a few hands.