30 Months on the Exponential (in Charts)

Substack · Watch/Read · (gathered 2026-10-21)

• AI has advanced exponentially and unevenly over the past 30 months, shifting from basic chatbots to sophisticated agentic systems capable of delegating and orchestrating complex tasks.
• The “best AI” title has changed hands 20 times, and 180 models now surpass GPT-4’s initial capabilities, with AI’s capacity for human-equivalent work doubling eight times (e.g., from a 4-minute task to 17 hours) while costs plummeted.
• The way humans work with AI is evolving from “centaur” and “cyborg” models to the “conjurer” approach, where users summon and delegate work to agents, as demonstrated by the article’s charts being created by an AI orchestrator.
• While agentic AI offers immense power, this delegation introduces new risks as users lose direct control over the AI’s methods, making it crucial for humans to focus on deep knowledge, wide knowledge, taste, and agency.