Stop asking if AI can do this. Start asking what shape the work is.

Substack · Podcast · Article

• Core reframe: “can AI do this?” is the wrong investment gate. The right question is “what shape is this work?” — workflow structure determines whether to automate, build, buy, hire, or wait, not model capability.
• Six-dimension classification framework: repetition frequency, cost of errors, judgment requirements, model maturity trajectory, market solution availability, company specificity. Two-axis decision matrix maps market maturity vs company specificity to five investment motions.
• Warning: 40%+ of agentic AI projects forecast to be cancelled by end of 2027 due to cost, unclear value, or inadequate controls — most stem from committing capital before classifying work shape.
• Practical takeaway: score your workflow against the six dimensions before committing budget; use four diagnostic prompts (decomposer, scorer, pressure-test, describability gate) to route capital to the correct motion.