Global Energy Stressors: Can Anybody Help || Peter Zeihan

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• The global energy market faces a “bleak picture” with a severe and worsening lack of spare capacity, projecting a 10-12 million barrels per day shortage that will increase over the next three months.
• Traditional spare capacity from OPEC (Saudi Arabia, UAE) is constrained, with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea likely to reduce Saudi crude exports rather than increase them.
• New production from the Western Hemisphere (Guyana, Venezuela, Brazil, Canada) offers only incremental gains or long-term prospects (e.g., Keystone pipeline by 2028), while Angola’s production is failing.
• Reliable energy market data is severely compromised due to non-reporting from Iran, Russia’s “shadow fleet,” and China’s “black hole” of information, making pricing advice difficult.
• The world’s significantly reduced energy buffer will inevitably lead to a “market reaction” causing demand destruction on a scale not seen since the 2007-2009 price spikes.