Global Shipping Comes Under Attack || Peter Zeihan

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• The US is currently enabling a limited, costly, and unsustainable flow of crude oil from the Strait of Hormuz (3-5 million bpd, down from 20-22 million bpd) through an “echo of the shadow fleet” strategy, where Arab Gulf states use their own tankers with transponders off under US overwatch for sea-to-sea transfers.
• This effort highlights the broader, irreversible decline in global maritime security: no country or coalition can defend all eight major transit choke points (e.g., Hormuz, Bab el Mandeb, Malacca) simultaneously, leading to a “new normal” where piracy is returning and breakdowns are inevitable.
• While protecting global sea lanes is “very hard and very expensive,” interrupting them is “very easy,” and the US retains the capability to disrupt all major choke points simultaneously if it chooses, mirroring the asymmetry of drone warfare where offense is simpler than defense.