Back to the Glory Days of the Spice Trade || Peter Zeihan

YouTube/Podcast · Listen · (gathered 2026-09-13)

• The current globalized trade system is failing, forcing a return to a “sequestered trade” model reminiscent of the pre-1500 spice trade, where commerce was regionalized and often militarized.
• Zeihan frames the historical “Adriatic model” of the spice trade (where Italian city-states and Istanbul thrived as middlemen before Portuguese deep-water navigation disrupted their dominance) as the best baseline for understanding future trade dynamics.
• While deep-water navigation isn’t disappearing, no nation, including the US, can globally protect sea lanes (only intervene), leading to the collapse of complex manufactured goods trade reliant on multi-country, multi-step supply chains.
• The economy of the next 5-15 years will see products only produced relatively locally or within robust regional networks (like the EU), with anything else simply ceasing to be produced, fundamentally altering shipping and naval roles.