Peter Zeihan: The Iran War Could Reshape the Global Economy | Prof G Conversations

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• The core driver of deglobalization is a global demographic collapse, specifically the rapid decline in working-aged adults across both developed and developing nations, making the global trading system unsustainable this decade.
• Countries like China, Korea, Italy, and Germany face the most acute demographic crises, with China potentially facing “National Oblivion” due to its rapid aging process.
• The green energy transition faces insurmountable financing hurdles, with capital costs tripling and projected to triple again, requiring massive government subsidies that divert capital from other sectors.
• Multinational corporations must urgently de-risk from China, as its industrial capacity will disappear within 3-10 years due to demographics, and should focus on nearshoring/friendshoring to regions like Mexico (including Colombia as a low-skill partner), Canada, and Southeast Asia (e.g., Vietnam).
• Deglobalization will lead to a massive global famine, potentially limiting the world’s population to 7 billion, as countries like Brazil and China are highly dependent on imported fertilizers that will become scarce.