The Diesel Shortage Hits America || Peter Zeihan

YouTube/Podcast · Listen · (gathered 2026-09-30)

• The U.S. is facing guaranteed regional diesel shortages for at least the next 18 months, despite being a net exporter, due to a perfect storm of international supply disruptions and domestic logistical vulnerabilities that will impact the entire economy.
• Global supply is tightening due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining capacity (making Russia a net importer) and the Persian Gulf conflict severely restricting crude flow, with the Strait of Hormuz seeing drastically reduced shipping traffic (down to 3-20 ships/day).
• Domestically, the “Jones Act” (Interstate Commerce Act of 1920s) inflates maritime transport costs by a factor of five, creating severe regional bottlenecks for diesel supply, particularly for the West and East Coasts which rely on limited, expensive Jones Act vessels from the Gulf Coast.
• The U.S. transport system’s unique and costly reliance on diesel-intensive truck transport (instead of cheaper water or rail) exacerbates the problem, as most cargo is shipped by road, further straining diesel demand.
• These combined factors will lead to astronomically high diesel prices in affected regions and will disrupt the movement of virtually all goods across the country, impacting the entire economy for the duration of the shortage.