Flashpoints #
- Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1, 2026 (ISW/Critical Threats) — Two and a half months into Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, the rate of advance remains low with no operationally significant gains; Russian forces suffered their highest casualty rate of 2026 in July for that lack of progress. Russia is firing more missiles per month than it produces, leaning on S-400/Zirkon stocks to compensate for ballistic-missile shortfalls, and exploiting Ukraine’s Patriot-interceptor shortage with large combined strikes on Kyiv Oblast. A Ukrainian brigade flags a possible concerted push in the Zaporizhia direction in August-September, though ISW sees no preparation indicators yet — net picture is a costly stalemate, not a breakthrough in either direction.
- Taiwan civil-defense internet-slowdown drill (August 2026) — Taiwan will deliberately throttle mobile internet speeds for the first time during civil-defense drills this month, testing how citizens communicate under bandwidth scarcity in a potential blockade/invasion scenario — a concrete, first-of-its-kind preparedness measure rather than the more familiar declaratory signaling (defense-spending bills, joint statements) this journal has mostly tracked so far.